The IMF publishes the World Economic Outlook twice a year (April and October), with macroeconomic forecasts for nearly 200 countries. This tool tracks how those forecasts have evolved across editions from April 2008 to October 2025.

Each dot below is a forecast from a previous WEO edition. Larger, fainter dots are longer-range forecasts; smaller, brighter dots are nearer-term. The solid line shows the latest actual data; the dashed line shows the latest forecasts. Where dots cluster tightly, forecasters agreed; where they spread, there was uncertainty or revision.

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Oct 2025 WEO

Previous WEOs

Same-year nowcast

Actual

Forecast/est.

World average

Region average

5-year forecast

3-year forecast

1-year forecast

April

October

Notable Examples

Greece — Government Debt: The IMF's own Independent Evaluation Office criticized the austerity-era debt forecasts. The dot cloud shows how projections kept underestimating Greek debt as the crisis deepened.
Japan — CPI Inflation: For years, forecasts predicted inflation would return to 2%—and it never did. The cloud fans out above the flatline, until post-COVID inflation finally arrived and caught forecasters going the other way.
Ethiopia — Real GDP Growth: Ethiopia pursued an ambitious state-led development strategy that produced consistently strong GDP growth, frequently exceeding IMF forecasts. The dot cloud shows a pattern of upward revisions as actual growth outpaced earlier projections.
Germany — Real GDP Growth: Recent forecasts show persistent optimism about a rebound that hasn't materialized. The “sick man of Europe” narrative is visible in the gap between forecast dots and the actual line.

About the WEO

The World Economic Outlook is the IMF's flagship forecast publication, covering GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balances, current account balances, and more for nearly every country. It has been published twice yearly (April and October) since 1980.

Each edition contains forecasts extending 5–6 years forward. As the forecast horizon shrinks, estimates generally converge toward the actual outcome—but not always. The IMF's Independent Evaluation Office found systematic optimism bias during recessions. Research by Loungani et al. (2018) showed the “record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.” A 2025 IMF working paper found forecasts overreact to good news while responding more cautiously to bad news.

By overlaying all 39 editions, you can see these patterns directly—the cloud of dots reveals where forecasts converged or diverged, and how the latest estimates compare to historical predictions.

Indicator Glossary

Code	Name	Units	Description
NGDP_RPCH	Real GDP Growth	% change	Year-over-year change in inflation-adjusted GDP. The broadest measure of economic growth.
BCA_NGDPD	Current Account Balance	% of GDP	Net flow of goods, services, and transfers with the rest of the world. Negative = deficit.
PCPIPCH	CPI Inflation	% change	Year-over-year change in consumer prices.
GGXWDG_NGDP	Government Debt	% of GDP	Gross general government debt relative to GDP.
GGXCNL_NGDP	Fiscal Balance	% of GDP	General government net lending/borrowing. Negative = deficit.
NID_NGDP	Investment	% of GDP	Total investment (gross capital formation) as a share of GDP.
NGAP_NPGDP	Output Gap	% of potential GDP	How far GDP is above or below estimated potential. Negative = slack. Available for ~30 advanced economies.
LUR	Unemployment Rate	% of labor force	Share of the labor force that is unemployed. Not available for all countries.

Countries Included (196)

Advanced Economies (41)
Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong SAR, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macao SAR, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Puerto Rico, San Marino, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan Province of China, United Kingdom, United States

Emerging & Developing Asia (30)
Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Vietnam

Emerging & Developing Europe (15)
Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Hungary, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine

Latin America & Caribbean (33)
Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela

Middle East & Central Asia (32)
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, West Bank and Gaza, Yemen

Sub-Saharan Africa (45)
Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe