Macroeconomics
28 posts in Macroeconomics · page 1 of 3. ← All posts
-
Employment Is Falling. Is GDP Next?
GDP growth and employment growth usually move together. The scatter below plots one-year changes in each, from 1949 to 2025, plus March 2...
-
China is exporting cheap capital goods to the world
In 1950, the Argentine economist Raul Prebisch published a finding that would shape development economics for decades: the prices of comm...
-
Economic Data Review: Q1 2026
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today and is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent. With abo...
-
After the thrill is gone
Consumer spending grew about 2 percent over the year ending December 2025, while total household income only increased by 1 percent. The ...
-
Economic Divergence: The K-Shaped Economy’s Missing Story
Some economists have been highlighting a divergence in consumer spending. But the discussion is missing an important piece: the dramatic ...
-
Who Benefits from a Jobless Boom?
US economic output is booming despite very weak job growth. By definition, this means existing workers are producing more. Many workers, ...
-
Labor Market Conditions and Impulse
Labor markets can deteriorate very rapidly, resulting in an economic recession. As such, economists monitor conditions closely. Currently...
-
Productivity-Pay Gap: Composition Issues
Some tools for thinking about the economy worked less well during the pandemic. One such instance involves the productivity-pay gap. A fa...
-
Sources of Household Spending
The vibes debate popped back up last week. I wrote about this in September and in more depth earlier this month. Part of the recent discu...
-
Improved FOMC Outlook
The people who determine monetary policy in the US report their forecasts for key economic indicators. The group’s December forecast was ...
-
Strong Labor Market Continues
The strong labor market continued in November, according to this morning’s jobs report. The US added a net total of 199,000 jobs in the m...
-
Labor Productivity
In the third quarter, labor productivity grew at an annual rate of 5.2 percent, far above the long-term average of 1.6 to 1.9 percent. Th...