Category
Macroeconomics
Growth, recessions, and the big-picture forces driving the US economy.
29 posts · page 1 of 3
Posts in this category
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Economic Data Review: Q2 2026
The oil shock that pushed inflation above 4 percent in the spring is already fading, and the economy's growth increasingly rests on one n...
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Employment Is Falling. Is GDP Next?
GDP growth and employment growth usually move together. The scatter below plots one-year changes in each, from 1949 to 2025, plus March 2...
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China is exporting cheap capital goods to the world
In 1950, the Argentine economist Raul Prebisch published a finding that would shape development economics for decades: the prices of comm...
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Economic Data Review: Q1 2026
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today and is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent. With abo...
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After the thrill is gone
Consumer spending grew about 2 percent over the year ending December 2025, while total household income only increased by 1 percent. The ...
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Economic Divergence: The K-Shaped Economy’s Missing Story
Some economists have been highlighting a divergence in consumer spending. But the discussion is missing an important piece: the dramatic ...
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Who Benefits from a Jobless Boom?
US economic output is booming despite very weak job growth. By definition, this means existing workers are producing more. Many workers, ...
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Labor Market Conditions and Impulse
Labor markets can deteriorate very rapidly, resulting in an economic recession. As such, economists monitor conditions closely. Currently...
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Productivity-Pay Gap: Composition Issues
Some tools for thinking about the economy worked less well during the pandemic. One such instance involves the productivity-pay gap. A fa...
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Sources of Household Spending
The vibes debate popped back up last week. I wrote about this in September and in more depth earlier this month. Part of the recent discu...
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Improved FOMC Outlook
The people who determine monetary policy in the US report their forecasts for key economic indicators. The group’s December forecast was ...
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Strong Labor Market Continues
The strong labor market continued in November, according to this morning’s jobs report. The US added a net total of 199,000 jobs in the m...
