Economic analysis, data work, and Python notes from Brian Dew. Subscribe via RSS.
Latest post · May 6, 2026 · Labor Market
Why Fewer People Are Out of the Workforce for Family
As prices rise again, the question is which households suffer.
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IMF forecasts 3.2% US inflation rate in 2026
The April 2026 IMF World Economic Outlook is out. Headline forecasts for 2026:
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Income growth is slowing. For low-paid workers, real wages are falling.
March inflation jumped to 3.3% year over year, up from 2.4% in February. The main driver was gasoline as the Iran war pushed pump prices ...
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Where is Housing Being Built? (2026 update)
Where people move and where housing gets built tend to go together, and both are concentrated in the US south even as housing prices rema...
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The Rhetoric of Austerity
In 1991, Albert Hirschman published The Rhetoric of Reaction, identifying three arguments that have been used to oppose social programs s...
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Employment Is Falling. Is GDP Next?
GDP growth and employment growth usually move together. The scatter below plots one-year changes in each, from 1949 to 2025, plus March 2...
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China is exporting cheap capital goods to the world
In 1950, the Argentine economist Raul Prebisch published a finding that would shape development economics for decades: the prices of comm...
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What interest rates tell you about the oil shock
Since the Strait of Hormuz closed at the end of February, WTI crude oil has risen from $63 to $105 a barrel. Interest rates across the ec...
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The Hiring Freeze and Who It Traps
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% — still low by historical standards, but up from 3.4% two years ago. Underneath that number, hiri...
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The Wrong Gift
Two Democratic senators recently introduced competing proposals to cut taxes for working Americans. Sen. Van Hollen’s Working Americans’ ...
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The Wage Data Went Dark at Exactly the Wrong Time
The government shutdown meant no October CPS was collected. Without it, the BLS couldn’t publish its Usual Weekly Earnings series for the...
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Economic Data Review: Q1 2026
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today and is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent. With abo...